Interviewee: S Naren, Executive Director, CIO, ICICI Prudential Asset Management
Interviewer: ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Subject: Market outlook and the way forward
Date: 30 November 2024
- We look at valuations, where we are in the cycle, what is the sentiment and the outlook while making investment decisions.
- We look at sentiment in a very interesting way. For long term investors, you have to look at sentiment in reverse, i.e., invest when no one is investing, and vice versa.
- There was huge FII selling in mega and large caps; this made the sentiment indicator positive. This has made mega and large caps reasonably attractive, but they are not ‘dirt cheap’ on valuations.
- FII flow will return to India (after the recent outflow) when the Dollar strength thesis breaks. The Dollar strength thesis will break because the US economy has a very high fiscal deficit and current account deficit, and inflation is not low. This situation cannot warrant the currency to only keep appreciating, even if it’s the reserve currency of the world.
- Valuations are important, not whether the stock is a ‘quality’ stock or ‘value’ stock. Currently, ‘quality’ stocks are looking attractive due to reasonably attractive valuations.
- Small and midcaps look overvalued at this point in time. Large caps on sentiment basis are very attractive, but moderately attractive on valuation basis.
To access the interview, click here.
Disclaimer: The key points of the interview presented here are not a substitute to listening to the full interview. To get the interviewee’s holistic message requires listening to the entire interview.
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